Alaska 2022 U.S. House special general election (published ranking patterns): evidence account

How the sample was chosen

This seed names no sealed machine records and no published box list. This account does not show the sample was chosen before anyone could see the ballots.

The contest

Title: Alaska 2022 U.S. House special general election (published ranking patterns)

Candidates: Begich, Nick, Palin, Sarah, Peltola, Mary S..

Records in this count: 188,582.

Ballot file: alaska-2022-profile

Source: Graham-Squire and McCune, A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House (arXiv:2209.04764), Table 1, derived from the Alaska Division of Elections cast vote record for the August 16, 2022 special general election.

This is the ranking-pattern table, not the ballot records: the 188,582 ballots that ranked at least one candidate, grouped into the nine patterns they form.

The 3,412 ballots that marked nobody and the 295 stopped by two or more marks at their first rank are not in this table.

Write-in marks are dropped, and a ballot ranking only two candidates is written out in full, with the candidate it never ranks placed last.

The first-choice counts here (Begich 53,810, Palin 58,973, Peltola 75,799) are the state's own round 1.

Where the records sat:

One stack of 188,582 records. There is no ballot manifest of sealed containers.

No container custody was supplied.

What was configured

Configuration version: alaska-2022-profile-instant-runoff-v1.

Configuration fingerprint (SHA-256): 10e9034abf416da38925d0b4cb0c54c3558f72e97a61bb76675cb7fba8c902a2.

Counting rule: instant runoff.

Ballot rules used: Two or more marks at one rank end the ballot there; 2 ranks in a row left blank end the ballot; a candidate marked again lower down counts as a rank left blank.

Ballot file: alaska-2022-profile. A third party with this file can rerun the count.

Audit: instant-runoff RAIRE assertion audit (polling form). Public seed: alaska-2022-irv. Risk limit 10% (used in the audit math).

Plain-language configuration (check against statute intent):

Configuration version: alaska-2022-profile-instant-runoff-v1

Fingerprint (SHA-256): 10e9034abf416da38925d0b4cb0c54c3558f72e97a61bb76675cb7fba8c902a2

Election: Alaska 2022 U.S. House special general election (published ranking patterns), counted under instant runoff

A demonstration configuration over committed fixture records. Alaska counted these records under instant runoff in the August 16, 2022 special general election.

Ballot rules follow the state's published RCV Detailed Report for the August 16, 2022 special general election.

Audit risk limit is the 10% limit this package uses for risk-limiting audits; it is not a claim about Alaska statute.

Contests and candidates:

U.S. Representative (Special General) (us-house-special-general): Begich, Nick; Palin, Sarah; Peltola, Mary S..

Counting rule: instant runoff.

Tiebreak: not used under this counting rule.

Ballot rules (how marks become a ranking):

Two or more marks at one rank: the ballot counts up to that rank and no further.

A candidate marked again lower down: that rank counts as a rank left blank.

2 ranks in a row left blank: the ballot counts up to there and no further.

A mark for anyone not on the ballot: a mark, so the rank is not blank, but never a vote.

Audit risk limit: 10%. A risk-limiting audit that runs under this configuration stops when the sample confirms the outcome at that limit, or sends the contest to a full hand count.

How a ballot is counted and how an audit stops are fixed by this version. Changing any of the lines above requires a new version id.

The count

What follows is the counting account under instant runoff, including every intermediate step.

What was counted

Ballots in this count: 188,582.

Ballots from: Graham-Squire and McCune, A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House (arXiv:2209.04764), Table 1, derived from the Alaska Division of Elections cast vote record for the August 16, 2022 special general election.

This is the ranking-pattern table, not the ballot records: the 188,582 ballots that ranked at least one candidate, grouped into the nine patterns they form.

The 3,412 ballots that marked nobody and the 295 stopped by two or more marks at their first rank are not in this table.

Write-in marks are dropped, and a ballot ranking only two candidates is written out in full, with the candidate it never ranks placed last.

The first-choice counts here (Begich 53,810, Palin 58,973, Peltola 75,799) are the state's own round 1.

How the marks on a ballot were read:

Two or more marks at one rank: the ballot counts up to that rank and no further.

A candidate marked again lower down: that rank counts as a rank left blank.

2 ranks in a row left blank: the ballot counts up to there and no further.

A mark for anyone not on the ballot: a mark, so the rank is not blank, but never a vote.

The rankings the ballots form, and how many ballots form each. A candidate a ranking does not name is ranked last on those ballots.

Round 1

Ballots counting this round: 188,582.

Ballots counting for nobody: no candidate marked 0; ran out of rankings 0; two or more marks at one rank 0.

More than half of 188,582 is 94,292.

Nobody has 94,292, so the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated.

Begich, Nick is eliminated with 53,810 votes, fewest in this round.

Where those 53,810 ballots go:

Round 2

Ballots counting this round: 177,292.

Ballots counting for nobody: no candidate marked 0; ran out of rankings 11,290; two or more marks at one rank 0.

More than half of 177,292 is 88,647.

Peltola, Mary S. has 91,266 votes, more than half of 177,292, and is elected.

Outcome

Peltola, Mary S. is elected: after 2 rounds, 91,266 of the 177,292 ballots still counting rank Peltola, Mary S. above every candidate left.

Records with no mark, by contest and by machine

At the close of polls, the share of records with no mark in each contest, by contest and by machine. Leaving a contest blank is a voter's right; an outlier below is a question about the ballot or the machine, not a verdict.

The audit

This is the RAIRE assertion audit for Instant Runoff Voting (Blom, Stuckey, and Teague, RAIRE: Risk-Limiting Audits for IRV Elections, 2019). It is not a Condorcet pairwise audit.

An instant-runoff contest whose reported winner is Peltola, Mary S. is confirmed by k = 3 RAIRE assertions. Here n is 3 candidates.

Overall risk limit 10% (0.1). Each assertion is the 2012 III.A Wald SPRT at that same 10% (confirm when T is above 9.9, full hand count when T is below 0.011). The contest confirms only when every assertion confirms. A wrong instant-runoff winner falsifies at least one assertion, so the chance of confirming it is at most 10%. That is the SHANGRLA intersection of assertions, not a Bonferroni split of the risk across the k tests.

A risk-limiting audit does not prove the outcome is right. It has a large chance of forcing a full hand count when the outcome is wrong. If the outcome is right, this test cannot change it.

Reported instant-runoff winner: Peltola, Mary S.. Record winner on this file: Peltola, Mary S..

Tolerance t: 1.00%.

Assertions:

Multiply an assertion's T by the winner factor when the ballot votes for the winner in that context, and by the loser factor when it votes for the loser. Skip a ballot with no preference between the two. T starts at 1.

Public seed: alaska-2022-irv

Ballots in the file: 188,582. One shared sample with replacement, SHA-256 of "seed,draw,attempt" mapped onto 1 through 188,582. Each draw is classified for every unfinished assertion.

The hand read of each drawn ballot is simulated from the ballot file. That is a fixture, not a sealed container. A live audit replaces each simulation with a person reading the paper at that place.

Ballot manifest:

No container custody was supplied.

Draws (a ballot with no preference for an assertion is listed and does not change that T):