Alaska 2022 U.S. House special general election (published ranking patterns): evidence account

The contest

Title: Alaska 2022 U.S. House special general election (published ranking patterns)

Candidates: Begich, Nick, Palin, Sarah, Peltola, Mary S..

Records in this count: 188,582.

Ballot file: alaska-2022-profile

Source: Graham-Squire and McCune, A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House (arXiv:2209.04764), Table 1, derived from the Alaska Division of Elections cast vote record for the August 16, 2022 special general election.

This is the ranking-pattern table, not the ballot records: the 188,582 ballots that ranked at least one candidate, grouped into the nine patterns they form.

The 3,412 ballots that marked nobody and the 295 stopped by two or more marks at their first rank are not in this table.

Write-in marks are dropped, and a ballot ranking only two candidates is written out in full, with the candidate it never ranks placed last.

The first-choice counts here (Begich 53,810, Palin 58,973, Peltola 75,799) are the state's own round 1.

Where the records sat:

One stack of 188,582 records. There is no ballot manifest of sealed containers.

No container custody was supplied.

What was configured

Configuration version: alaska-2022-profile-ranked-robin-v1-under-maximal-lotteries.

Configuration fingerprint (SHA-256): 9154778834149f55c9d1e3dbefcc5ba68e9752a46d775317747a952af826c0d8.

Counting rule: maximal lotteries.

Ballot rules used: Two or more marks at one rank end the ballot there; 2 ranks in a row left blank end the ballot; a candidate marked again lower down counts as a rank left blank.

Ballot file: alaska-2022-profile. A third party with this file can rerun the count.

Audit: none. No seed was used.

Configured audit risk limit: 10%.

Plain-language configuration (check against statute intent):

Configuration version: alaska-2022-profile-ranked-robin-v1-under-maximal-lotteries

Fingerprint (SHA-256): 9154778834149f55c9d1e3dbefcc5ba68e9752a46d775317747a952af826c0d8

Election: U.S. Representative (Special General), counted under maximal lotteries

A demonstration configuration over committed fixture records, counting the same ballots under another rule. No audit ran under it, and no real election was counted under it.

Contests and candidates:

U.S. Representative (Special General) (us-house-special-general): Begich, Nick; Palin, Sarah; Peltola, Mary S..

Counting rule: maximal lotteries.

Tiebreak: not used under this counting rule.

Ballot rules (how marks become a ranking):

Two or more marks at one rank: the ballot counts up to that rank and no further.

A candidate marked again lower down: that rank counts as a rank left blank.

2 ranks in a row left blank: the ballot counts up to there and no further.

A mark for anyone not on the ballot: a mark, so the rank is not blank, but never a vote.

Audit risk limit: 10%. A risk-limiting audit that runs under this configuration stops when the sample confirms the outcome at that limit, or sends the contest to a full hand count.

How a ballot is counted and how an audit stops are fixed by this version. Changing any of the lines above requires a new version id.

The count

What follows is the counting account under maximal lotteries, including every intermediate step.

What was counted

Ballots in this count: 188,582.

Ballots from: Graham-Squire and McCune, A Mathematical Analysis of the 2022 Alaska Special Election for US House (arXiv:2209.04764), Table 1, derived from the Alaska Division of Elections cast vote record for the August 16, 2022 special general election.

This is the ranking-pattern table, not the ballot records: the 188,582 ballots that ranked at least one candidate, grouped into the nine patterns they form.

The 3,412 ballots that marked nobody and the 295 stopped by two or more marks at their first rank are not in this table.

Write-in marks are dropped, and a ballot ranking only two candidates is written out in full, with the candidate it never ranks placed last.

The first-choice counts here (Begich 53,810, Palin 58,973, Peltola 75,799) are the state's own round 1.

How the marks on a ballot were read:

Two or more marks at one rank: the ballot counts up to that rank and no further.

A candidate marked again lower down: that rank counts as a rank left blank.

2 ranks in a row left blank: the ballot counts up to there and no further.

A mark for anyone not on the ballot: a mark, so the rank is not blank, but never a vote.

The rankings the ballots form, and how many ballots form each. A candidate a ranking does not name is ranked last on those ballots.

Lottery

Maximal lotteries finds a mixed strategy on the Smith set of pairwise margins (a Nash equilibrium of that zero-sum game). Candidates outside the Smith set get probability 0.

Public seed for this draw: alaska-2022-rr-count.

Given that seed and these ballots, the draw is deterministic: the same seed reprints the same outcome. The method itself is still stochastic: a different seed can elect a different candidate.

Risk-limiting audits and the Ranked Robin evidence story do not apply the same way to a lottery or random draw. This account does not claim an RLA confirmation of the drawn winner.

Begich, Nick is drawn from the maximal lotteries distribution under public seed alaska-2022-rr-count.

Records with no mark, by contest and by machine

At the close of polls, the share of records with no mark in each contest, by contest and by machine. Leaving a contest blank is a voter's right; an outlier below is a question about the ballot or the machine, not a verdict.

The audit

No audit ran.

What was found

No audit ran, so there are no sample findings.

Custody: none supplied. No container custody chain was recorded or verified.

Why it stopped

Decision: no audit.

No audit ran.

Outcome status: preliminary. Software tallies stay preliminary until an audit on the record confirms them or a full hand count of the record replaces them.