CVRs name Baird the Ranked Robin winner, paper elects Ames: evidence account
In plain words
The count under Minimax elected Baird because Baird has the smallest worst pairwise defeat (margins).
No audit ran.
No container custody was supplied.
Outcome status: preliminary. Software tallies stay preliminary until an audit on the record confirms them or a full hand count of the record replaces them.
The contest
Title: CVRs name Baird the Ranked Robin winner, paper elects Ames
Candidates: Ames, Baird, Cortez.
Records in this count: 20.
Ballot file: condorcet-wrong-winner
Source: Synthetic fixture: committed CVRs all rank Baird first, simulated paper all rank Ames first.
The machine's reported Ranked Robin winner is Baird, who wins every matchup on the CVRs. A hand count of the paper would elect Ames. A comparison-form assertion audit at 10% risk must go to a full hand count.
Where the records sat:
One stack of 20 records. There is no ballot manifest of sealed containers.
No container custody was supplied.
What was configured
Configuration version: condorcet-wrong-winner-ranked-robin-v1-under-minimax.
Configuration fingerprint (SHA-256): 50d61e1d1460837246f86d832a38f489b114435907aec688d8ac5584716d8b65.
Counting rule: Minimax.
Ballot rules used: Two or more marks at one rank end the ballot there; 2 ranks in a row left blank end the ballot; a candidate marked again lower down counts as a rank left blank.
Ballot file: condorcet-wrong-winner. A third party with this file can rerun the count.
Audit: none. No seed was used.
Configured audit risk limit: 10%.
Plain-language configuration (check against statute intent):
Configuration version: condorcet-wrong-winner-ranked-robin-v1-under-minimax
Fingerprint (SHA-256): 50d61e1d1460837246f86d832a38f489b114435907aec688d8ac5584716d8b65
Election: A made-up three-candidate contest, machine records wrong, counted under Minimax
A demonstration configuration over committed fixture records, counting the same ballots under another rule. No audit ran under it, and no real election was counted under it.
Contests and candidates:
A made-up three-candidate contest, machine records wrong (condorcet-wrong-winner): Ames; Baird; Cortez.
Counting rule: Minimax.
Tiebreak: not used under this counting rule.
Ballot rules (how marks become a ranking):
Two or more marks at one rank: the ballot counts up to that rank and no further.
A candidate marked again lower down: that rank counts as a rank left blank.
2 ranks in a row left blank: the ballot counts up to there and no further.
A mark for anyone not on the ballot: a mark, so the rank is not blank, but never a vote.
Audit risk limit: 10%. A risk-limiting audit that runs under this configuration stops when the sample confirms the outcome at that limit, or sends the contest to a full hand count.
How a ballot is counted and how an audit stops are fixed by this version. Changing any of the lines above requires a new version id.
The count
What follows is the counting account under Minimax, including every intermediate step.
What was counted
Ballots in this count: 20.
Ballots from: Synthetic fixture: committed CVRs all rank Baird first, simulated paper all rank Ames first.
The machine's reported Ranked Robin winner is Baird, who wins every matchup on the CVRs. A hand count of the paper would elect Ames. A comparison-form assertion audit at 10% risk must go to a full hand count.
How the marks on a ballot were read:
Two or more marks at one rank: the ballot counts up to that rank and no further.
A candidate marked again lower down: that rank counts as a rank left blank.
2 ranks in a row left blank: the ballot counts up to there and no further.
A mark for anyone not on the ballot: a mark, so the rank is not blank, but never a vote.
The rankings the ballots form, and how many ballots form each. A candidate a ranking does not name is ranked last on those ballots.
| Ranking | Ballots |
|---|---|
| Baird > Ames > Cortez | 20 |
Head to head
Every candidate is set against every other. A ballot counts in a matchup when it ranks one of the two above the other. A candidate a ballot never ranks is ranked last on that ballot, tied with every other candidate it never ranks, so such a ballot has no preference between them.
| Matchup | Votes | Against | Votes | No preference | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ames | 0 | Baird | 20 | 0 | Baird |
| Ames | 20 | Cortez | 0 | 0 | Ames |
| Baird | 20 | Cortez | 0 | 0 | Baird |
Minimax (margins)
For each candidate, find the largest margin by which any opponent beats them (a negative number means they never lose, and the figure is their weakest win).
The score is that number with the sign flipped: higher is better.
| Candidate | Score (minus worst defeat) |
|---|---|
| Ames | -20 |
| Baird | 20 |
| Cortez | -20 |
Outcome
Minimax scores: Ames -20; Baird 20; Cortez -20.
Baird is elected under Minimax: among all candidates, Baird has the smallest worst pairwise defeat (margins).
Records with no mark, by contest and by machine
At the close of polls, the share of records with no mark in each contest, by contest and by machine. Leaving a contest blank is a voter's right; an outlier below is a question about the ballot or the machine, not a verdict.
| Contest | Records | With no mark | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| condorcet-wrong-winner | 20 | 0 | 0.00% |
The audit
No audit ran.
What was found
No audit ran, so there are no sample findings.
Custody: none supplied. No container custody chain was recorded or verified.
Why it stopped
Decision: no audit.
No audit ran.
Outcome status: preliminary. Software tallies stay preliminary until an audit on the record confirms them or a full hand count of the record replaces them.