CVRs name Baird the Ranked Robin winner, paper elects Ames: evidence account

The contest

Title: CVRs name Baird the Ranked Robin winner, paper elects Ames

Candidates: Ames, Baird, Cortez.

Records in this count: 20.

Ballot file: condorcet-wrong-winner

Source: Synthetic fixture: committed CVRs all rank Baird first, simulated paper all rank Ames first.

The machine's reported Ranked Robin winner is Baird, who wins every matchup on the CVRs. A hand count of the paper would elect Ames. A comparison-form assertion audit at 10% risk must go to a full hand count.

Where the records sat:

One stack of 20 records. There is no ballot manifest of sealed containers.

No container custody was supplied.

What was configured

Configuration version: condorcet-wrong-winner-ranked-robin-v1-under-random-dictator.

Configuration fingerprint (SHA-256): ed7763da46cbcb296802cbae3759d022d3af24890d97a2c400d0c4fe3d213482.

Counting rule: random dictator.

Ballot rules used: Two or more marks at one rank end the ballot there; 2 ranks in a row left blank end the ballot; a candidate marked again lower down counts as a rank left blank.

Ballot file: condorcet-wrong-winner. A third party with this file can rerun the count.

Audit: none. No seed was used.

Configured audit risk limit: 10%.

Plain-language configuration (check against statute intent):

Configuration version: condorcet-wrong-winner-ranked-robin-v1-under-random-dictator

Fingerprint (SHA-256): ed7763da46cbcb296802cbae3759d022d3af24890d97a2c400d0c4fe3d213482

Election: A made-up three-candidate contest, machine records wrong, counted under random dictator

A demonstration configuration over committed fixture records, counting the same ballots under another rule. No audit ran under it, and no real election was counted under it.

Contests and candidates:

A made-up three-candidate contest, machine records wrong (condorcet-wrong-winner): Ames; Baird; Cortez.

Counting rule: random dictator.

Tiebreak: not used under this counting rule.

Ballot rules (how marks become a ranking):

Two or more marks at one rank: the ballot counts up to that rank and no further.

A candidate marked again lower down: that rank counts as a rank left blank.

2 ranks in a row left blank: the ballot counts up to there and no further.

A mark for anyone not on the ballot: a mark, so the rank is not blank, but never a vote.

Audit risk limit: 10%. A risk-limiting audit that runs under this configuration stops when the sample confirms the outcome at that limit, or sends the contest to a full hand count.

How a ballot is counted and how an audit stops are fixed by this version. Changing any of the lines above requires a new version id.

The count

What follows is the counting account under random dictator, including every intermediate step.

What was counted

Ballots in this count: 20.

Ballots from: Synthetic fixture: committed CVRs all rank Baird first, simulated paper all rank Ames first.

The machine's reported Ranked Robin winner is Baird, who wins every matchup on the CVRs. A hand count of the paper would elect Ames. A comparison-form assertion audit at 10% risk must go to a full hand count.

How the marks on a ballot were read:

Two or more marks at one rank: the ballot counts up to that rank and no further.

A candidate marked again lower down: that rank counts as a rank left blank.

2 ranks in a row left blank: the ballot counts up to there and no further.

A mark for anyone not on the ballot: a mark, so the rank is not blank, but never a vote.

The rankings the ballots form, and how many ballots form each. A candidate a ranking does not name is ranked last on those ballots.

The draw

Random dictator draws one ballot in proportion to how many ballots share each ranking, then takes that ballot's ranking as the outcome.

Drawn ranking: Baird > Ames > Cortez.

Ballots that could be drawn: 20.

Public seed for this draw: condorcet-wrong-winner-count.

Given that seed and these ballots, the draw is deterministic: the same seed reprints the same outcome. The method itself is still stochastic: a different seed can elect a different candidate.

Risk-limiting audits and the Ranked Robin evidence story do not apply the same way to a lottery or random draw. This account does not claim an RLA confirmation of the drawn winner.

Baird is elected as the unique first choice on the ballot drawn under public seed condorcet-wrong-winner-count.

Records with no mark, by contest and by machine

At the close of polls, the share of records with no mark in each contest, by contest and by machine. Leaving a contest blank is a voter's right; an outlier below is a question about the ballot or the machine, not a verdict.

The audit

No audit ran.

What was found

No audit ran, so there are no sample findings.

Custody: none supplied. No container custody chain was recorded or verified.

Why it stopped

Decision: no audit.

No audit ran.

Outcome status: preliminary. Software tallies stay preliminary until an audit on the record confirms them or a full hand count of the record replaces them.