A made-up three-candidate plurality contest: evidence account

The contest

Title: A made-up three-candidate plurality contest

Candidates: Ames, Baird, Cortez.

Records in this count: 1,000.

Ballot file: plurality-3

Source: Invented for this package. No real election.

Ames has 450 first choices (45%), Baird has 350 (35%), Cortez has 200 (20%).

Nobody has a majority, but Ames has a plurality. Used to test BRAVO ballot polling.

Where the records sat:

One stack of 1,000 records. There is no ballot manifest of sealed containers.

No container custody was supplied.

What was configured

Configuration version: plurality-3-plurality-v1-under-maximal-lotteries.

Configuration fingerprint (SHA-256): 63c3bdc0c1c6ee142368e34b44ab783173814c43d27e1c16a59cf6a7a2745c51.

Counting rule: maximal lotteries.

Ballot rules used: Two or more marks at one rank end the ballot there; 2 ranks in a row left blank end the ballot; a candidate marked again lower down counts as a rank left blank.

Ballot file: plurality-3. A third party with this file can rerun the count.

Audit: none. No seed was used.

Configured audit risk limit: 10%.

Plain-language configuration (check against statute intent):

Configuration version: plurality-3-plurality-v1-under-maximal-lotteries

Fingerprint (SHA-256): 63c3bdc0c1c6ee142368e34b44ab783173814c43d27e1c16a59cf6a7a2745c51

Election: A made-up three-candidate plurality contest, counted under maximal lotteries

A demonstration configuration over committed fixture records, counting the same ballots under another rule. No audit ran under it, and no real election was counted under it.

Contests and candidates:

A made-up three-candidate plurality contest (plurality-3): Ames; Baird; Cortez.

Counting rule: maximal lotteries.

Tiebreak: not used under this counting rule.

Ballot rules (how marks become a ranking):

Two or more marks at one rank: the ballot counts up to that rank and no further.

A candidate marked again lower down: that rank counts as a rank left blank.

2 ranks in a row left blank: the ballot counts up to there and no further.

A mark for anyone not on the ballot: a mark, so the rank is not blank, but never a vote.

Audit risk limit: 10%. A risk-limiting audit that runs under this configuration stops when the sample confirms the outcome at that limit, or sends the contest to a full hand count.

How a ballot is counted and how an audit stops are fixed by this version. Changing any of the lines above requires a new version id.

The count

What follows is the counting account under maximal lotteries, including every intermediate step.

What was counted

Ballots in this count: 1,000.

Ballots from: Invented for this package. No real election.

Ames has 450 first choices (45%), Baird has 350 (35%), Cortez has 200 (20%).

Nobody has a majority, but Ames has a plurality. Used to test BRAVO ballot polling.

How the marks on a ballot were read:

Two or more marks at one rank: the ballot counts up to that rank and no further.

A candidate marked again lower down: that rank counts as a rank left blank.

2 ranks in a row left blank: the ballot counts up to there and no further.

A mark for anyone not on the ballot: a mark, so the rank is not blank, but never a vote.

The rankings the ballots form, and how many ballots form each. A candidate a ranking does not name is ranked last on those ballots.

Lottery

Maximal lotteries finds a mixed strategy on the Smith set of pairwise margins (a Nash equilibrium of that zero-sum game). Candidates outside the Smith set get probability 0.

Public seed for this draw: plurality-polling-count.

Given that seed and these ballots, the draw is deterministic: the same seed reprints the same outcome. The method itself is still stochastic: a different seed can elect a different candidate.

Risk-limiting audits and the Ranked Robin evidence story do not apply the same way to a lottery or random draw. This account does not claim an RLA confirmation of the drawn winner.

Ames is drawn from the maximal lotteries distribution under public seed plurality-polling-count.

Records with no mark, by contest and by machine

At the close of polls, the share of records with no mark in each contest, by contest and by machine. Leaving a contest blank is a voter's right; an outlier below is a question about the ballot or the machine, not a verdict.

The audit

No audit ran.

What was found

No audit ran, so there are no sample findings.

Custody: none supplied. No container custody chain was recorded or verified.

Why it stopped

Decision: no audit.

No audit ran.

Outcome status: preliminary. Software tallies stay preliminary until an audit on the record confirms them or a full hand count of the record replaces them.