A made-up three-candidate plurality contest: evidence account

The contest

Title: A made-up three-candidate plurality contest

Candidates: Ames, Baird, Cortez.

Records in this count: 1,000.

Ballot file: plurality-3

Source: Invented for this package. No real election.

Ames has 450 first choices (45%), Baird has 350 (35%), Cortez has 200 (20%).

Nobody has a majority, but Ames has a plurality. Used to test BRAVO ballot polling.

Where the records sat:

One stack of 1,000 records. There is no ballot manifest of sealed containers.

No container custody was supplied.

What was configured

Configuration version: plurality-3-plurality-v1-under-randomized-condorcet.

Configuration fingerprint (SHA-256): 14f28c72f52290d14b8ea52bc0d5211229052353eacb6b3e62194bc4518b0cba.

Counting rule: randomized Condorcet.

Ballot rules used: Two or more marks at one rank end the ballot there; 2 ranks in a row left blank end the ballot; a candidate marked again lower down counts as a rank left blank.

Ballot file: plurality-3. A third party with this file can rerun the count.

Audit: none. No seed was used.

Configured audit risk limit: 10%.

Plain-language configuration (check against statute intent):

Configuration version: plurality-3-plurality-v1-under-randomized-condorcet

Fingerprint (SHA-256): 14f28c72f52290d14b8ea52bc0d5211229052353eacb6b3e62194bc4518b0cba

Election: A made-up three-candidate plurality contest, counted under randomized Condorcet

A demonstration configuration over committed fixture records, counting the same ballots under another rule. No audit ran under it, and no real election was counted under it.

Contests and candidates:

A made-up three-candidate plurality contest (plurality-3): Ames; Baird; Cortez.

Counting rule: randomized Condorcet.

Tiebreak: not used under this counting rule.

Ballot rules (how marks become a ranking):

Two or more marks at one rank: the ballot counts up to that rank and no further.

A candidate marked again lower down: that rank counts as a rank left blank.

2 ranks in a row left blank: the ballot counts up to there and no further.

A mark for anyone not on the ballot: a mark, so the rank is not blank, but never a vote.

Audit risk limit: 10%. A risk-limiting audit that runs under this configuration stops when the sample confirms the outcome at that limit, or sends the contest to a full hand count.

How a ballot is counted and how an audit stops are fixed by this version. Changing any of the lines above requires a new version id.

The count

What follows is the counting account under randomized Condorcet, including every intermediate step.

What was counted

Ballots in this count: 1,000.

Ballots from: Invented for this package. No real election.

Ames has 450 first choices (45%), Baird has 350 (35%), Cortez has 200 (20%).

Nobody has a majority, but Ames has a plurality. Used to test BRAVO ballot polling.

How the marks on a ballot were read:

Two or more marks at one rank: the ballot counts up to that rank and no further.

A candidate marked again lower down: that rank counts as a rank left blank.

2 ranks in a row left blank: the ballot counts up to there and no further.

A mark for anyone not on the ballot: a mark, so the rank is not blank, but never a vote.

The rankings the ballots form, and how many ballots form each. A candidate a ranking does not name is ranked last on those ballots.

Lottery

Randomized Condorcet runs maximal lotteries on the sign of each pairwise margin (who beats whom), not on margin size.

Public seed for this draw: plurality-polling-count.

Given that seed and these ballots, the draw is deterministic: the same seed reprints the same outcome. The method itself is still stochastic: a different seed can elect a different candidate.

Risk-limiting audits and the Ranked Robin evidence story do not apply the same way to a lottery or random draw. This account does not claim an RLA confirmation of the drawn winner.

Ames is drawn from the randomized Condorcet distribution under public seed plurality-polling-count.

Records with no mark, by contest and by machine

At the close of polls, the share of records with no mark in each contest, by contest and by machine. Leaving a contest blank is a voter's right; an outlier below is a question about the ballot or the machine, not a verdict.

The audit

No audit ran.

What was found

No audit ran, so there are no sample findings.

Custody: none supplied. No container custody chain was recorded or verified.

Why it stopped

Decision: no audit.

No audit ran.

Outcome status: preliminary. Software tallies stay preliminary until an audit on the record confirms them or a full hand count of the record replaces them.